Takeaway Tuesday #7

A couple weeks I noted how bad sentiment was...this was posted by @jasongoepfert "Last week, retail traders bought $19.9 billion worth of puts to open. They bought only $6.5 billion in calls to open. This is the first time in history that puts were 3x calls."

My prediction: We are going to have a bad recession, and the market will start discounting that 6-9 months in advance just like every time in the future. Multiples still generally high, rates are going higher (market has never bottom when rates were rising), and the credit market is awful. Reorg usage is up dramatically versus last year and everyone is gearing up for a big restructuring cycle in 2023. No one can catch the bottom though...

Reorg Content (subscription required)

• Performing / High Yield Credit - Carnival’s New Notes Issued By NonGuarantor Subsidiary Suggests Focus on Structurally Senior Debt Over Additional 1L, 2L Debt; Unlimited Transfers Within Restricted Group Permitted by All Carnival Debt Documents - Hot off the presses...The best trade for a while in the past couple of years was top of capital cruise lines. Structure and seniority still matters...

• Stressed / Distressed - Lots of content related to Bed Bath and Beyond (especially with the news today) - We wrote before the announcement about the advisors circling the company and bondholders. 

Other Content You May Find Interesting

• @the_red_deer Aggregating a Series of Credit Interviews the Past Couple of Weeks: I especially liked Boaz Weinstein's selling protection to the banks on IGs the need hedging given revolver capacity / worries of the market. Generally speaking sentiment was neutral / opportunistic for most of these interviews.

• How a Chinese American Gangster Transformed Money Laundering for Drug Cartels: Holy hell this was a crazy read. The reporting was nuts. Incredible piece by ProPublican

Something I Bet You Didn't Know You Could Do On Reorg

Our Docket / PACER technology is still one of the most used features on the site with thousands of users getting alerted to docket updates in real time. We applied a data science model to our millions of dockets to parse them down into what the actual dockets point to. So for instance if you were looking for backstop motions you can do that:

What's great is that you can then filter by Judge, districts, industry, time, law firm etc. Its incredible. And lots of associates are using it to help with docket research, writing motions, getting comps etc.